I Was Wrong About Bilt: What a $10.75 Billion Valuation Taught Me

Yep, I'll admit it. After seeing and reading about Bilt's new $10.75 billion valuation, everything I thought I knew about the Bilt card? I was wrong.

So, for that, I apologize.

Today, I want to set the record straight on:

  1. What exactly is Bilt and the Bilt Rewards program?
  2. What can we expect from Bilt Card 2.0 for the rest of 2025 and beyond?

Quick disclaimer: No sponsorship here. I read the same email every Bilt member got, along with an internal pitch deck JP Morgan created. I'm surprised they sent it to everyone, but here we are.

What I Thought Bilt Was

When Bilt launched in 2021, my mental model was simple:

  • You pay rent → You earn points → You use the Bilt card
  • Bilt makes money from credit card swipe fees + interest from balances
  • Plus some VC money to burn through

With all the value they were giving away, there was just no way this card could last, right?

Wrong.

Not only did Bilt last, they dominated the space for four years. They consistently ranked as my #1 no-annual-fee credit card. Their points currency is arguably the most valuable in the entire space.

And now: $10.75 billion valuation. On pace for $1 billion+ in revenue in the next six months. Processing over $100 billion in housing spend by year end.

So what's the deal? How can a no-annual-fee card provide this much value and generate these numbers?

The Truth: Bilt Is Not Just a Credit Card

Unlike Chase, Amex, Citi, or Capital One—where the credit card is the product—for Bilt, the card is just one piece of the puzzle. And it might not even be the largest piece.

Bilt is actually The Bilt Rewards Network—a massive platform play with two sides:

1. Platform for Housing

Bilt allows real estate companies to manage tenants from lease signing to lease renewal.

The stat that stopped me cold: Their retention rate is 100%.

Think about that. Giant apartment complexes sign up to use Bilt's network to process all their tenants. Year over year, they don't leave. Zero percent churn.

In business, 5-10% churn is normal. 0% is unheard of. If someone pitched me a startup with "our customers sign up and never leave," I'd say "Take my money. All of it."

2. Platform for Neighborhood Commerce

Bilt allows businesses to serve hyper-localized ads.

Example: I love getting sushi on Saturdays. Who wants to know that? Sushi restaurants near me. Bilt lets those merchants serve ads to precisely the right audience.

How Bilt Makes Money

As a Platform for Housing

  • Take rate on monthly housing spend (a cut of every transaction)
  • Commission on special lease incentives

The market size:

  • Rent volume: $700 billion/year
  • Mortgage volume: $1.4 trillion/year
  • Total addressable market: $16 trillion in housing-related spend

Right now, Bilt processes $100 billion. That's 0.6% of their TAM.

As a Platform for Commerce

  • Take rate on commerce spend
  • Estimated 2025 commerce volume: $10 billion

The opportunity: 80% of all consumer spend happens within a 15-minute radius of home. That's a $30 trillion total addressable market.

The Genius: The Rent-to-Own Flywheel

This is where it gets brilliant. Bilt has created a self-reinforcing flywheel:

  1. More properties sign onto Bilt Network → More residents join
  2. More residents join → More local neighborhood spend
  3. More local spend → Attracts more local merchants
  4. More merchants → More revshare to properties + value to residents
  5. More value → Incentivizes MORE properties to join
  6. Repeat

It's a positive feedback loop that gets stronger with every turn.

And what's Bilt capturing? The entire rent-to-own lifecycle:

  • You rent → Earn points
  • You buy a home → Earn points (coming soon)
  • You pay mortgage → Earn points (in development)
  • Along the way, you use your Bilt card for neighborhood spend

They're with you at every step of your housing journey.

What's Coming: Bilt 2.0

Mortgages Are Finally Happening

In this latest funding round, United Wholesale Mortgage invested $100 million themselves. They're one of the largest mortgage originators in the country.

The last line of the announcement: More information on earning points for mortgages coming in the Fall.

That's just months away.

Tiered Cards (Confirmed)

  • No annual fee version
  • $95 annual fee version
  • $495 annual fee version

Good news: Bilt says we shouldn't expect the "couponification" we've seen with Amex Platinum or Chase Sapphire Reserve.

For current card members: Everything stays the same for now, and they'll work with us on transition plans.

What Might Be in Each Tier?

About 6 months ago, Bilt sent a survey asking what we wanted to see in different card tiers. The final product will likely reflect those preferences.

New Banking Partner

Bilt is leaving Wells Fargo and partnering with Cardless.

The One Thing I'm Still Hoping For

Sign-up bonuses.

I know earning points on rent/mortgage is technically a "bonus" since it's money you have to spend anyway. But it would be so nice to finally get a traditional sign-up bonus—especially on the $95 or $495 cards—to accelerate points without waiting month over month.

Final Thoughts

The Bilt card for consumers is the most visible piece, but it's just the tip of the iceberg.

Bilt is building:

  • A platform for housing (addressing a $16T market)
  • A platform for neighborhood commerce (addressing a $30T market)
  • With a 100% retention rate on the housing side
  • And a self-reinforcing flywheel that gets stronger over time

At $10.75 billion, they're a unicorn. But given their TAM and execution so far? I still think this is early.

This gives me Venmo vibes. Stripe vibes. A fintech startup with massive room to run.

Want to see the JP Morgan pitch deck? Link in description.

What do you think Bilt 2.0 will look like? Drop your predictions in the comments.

Comments

Post a Comment